Analytics

The year 2025 will likely be remembered as a turning point in the modern history of gold. Both in physical terms and in market value, global demand reached levels never seen before, reflecting a deep shift in how investors, households, institutions, and governments perceive risk, money, and long-term security. Total gold demand, including over-the-counter transactions, exceeded 5,000 tonnes for the first time, while the gold price set 53 new all-time highs over the course of the year.

Silver’s leap above 100 dollars per ounce in January 2026 marks one of the most extreme price moves in the modern history of the metal. After already gaining about 147% in 2025, silver added another 40% in just the first weeks of the new year, pushing it far beyond levels that many analysts consider justified by fundamentals alone.

The sharp rise in gold prices over the past two years has transformed gold from a conservative reserve asset into a central pillar of monetary sovereignty and geopolitical risk management. With bullion prices climbing more than 60% and repeatedly setting new records above 4,300 dollars per troy ounce, gold has re-entered the strategic core of global finance.

The price surge in precious metals during 2025 did not simply lift gold and silver to new highs; it fundamentally changed how people in different countries interact with these metals. What is striking is not just the scale of the rally, but the consistency of one outcome across very different markets: jewellery is losing ground to bars and coins. Yet this shift is not driven by a single global logic. Instead, it reflects a mosaic of national circumstances—tourism flows, tax systems, inflation histories, currency weakness, and deeply rooted cultural habits—that together are reshaping physical demand.

Gold’s surge in 2025 has challenged the traditional assumption that sharp price gains must be followed by deep corrections. Prices posted their strongest annual jump since the 1979 oil crisis and doubled over the past two years, reaching a record near $4,380 per troy ounce in October after never having traded above $3,000 before March. In previous cycles, such a move would almost automatically have triggered expectations of a collapse. Instead, analysts at JP Morgan, Bank of America, and Metals Focus increasingly argue that gold is entering a structurally higher price regime, with levels around $5,000 per ounce in 2026 now seen as plausible rather than extreme.

Silver’s surge to a new all-time high of around 67 dollars per ounce in December 18 marks one of the most striking commodity stories of 2025. After spending much of the past decade trapped in a narrow range between 15 and 25 dollars, the metal more than doubled in value within a single year. This breakout did not unfold gradually.

Gold’s performance in 2025 has been extraordinary by historical standards. Prices have risen by more than 60% in dollar terms, the strongest annual gain in almost half a century, and in inflation-adjusted terms gold has never been more expensive. History offers a cautionary parallel: after peaking in late 1979, gold lost nearly two-thirds of its value over the following five years. That comparison inevitably raises the question of whether the current rally is another bubble—or whether gold is responding to a fundamentally different global environment.

Silver’s surge above 58 dollars per ounce at the start of December marks far more than a reaction to short-term volatility. The metal has climbed to historic highs, breaking levels untouched even during previous bull markets, and the drivers behind this move point to a deeper structural shift. Shrinking inventories,…

Forecasts from UBS, Goldman Sachs, and Deutsche Bank now converge around a dramatic but increasingly plausible scenario: by 2026, gold will trade between $4,450 and $4,900 per ounce, with realistic pathways toward even higher levels if geopolitical, monetary, or fiscal pressures intensify. What distinguishes this new outlook from previous bullish cycles is the recognition that gold’s rise is not a short-term reaction to volatility but a long-term recalibration of how investors and governments distribute risk in a more fragmented world.

Gold’s violent swings in late 2025 have revived a familiar debate: is the long rally finally losing momentum, or are investors misreading short-term noise as a change in the underlying trend? The answer, increasingly supported by data from the World Gold Council, market behaviour tracked by The Economist, and forecasts from UBS and Bloomberg, is that gold’s long-term foundations remain not only intact but stronger than at any point in the past decade.